ABSTRACT
We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the US during the first half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across US regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties.
ABSTRACT
Using daily microdata, we document major outflows in corporate-bond funds during the COVID-19 crisis. Large outflows were sustained over weeks and most severe for funds with illiquid assets, vulnerable to fire sales, and exposed to sectors hurt by the crisis. By providing a liquidity backstop for their bond holdings, the Federal Reserve bond purchase program helped to reverse outflows especially for the most fragile funds. In turn, the program had spillover effects on primary market issuance and peer funds. The evidence points to a “bond-fund fragility channel” whereby the Fed liquidity backstop transmits to the real economy via funds. © 2021